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                您當前位置:網站首頁 >> 化工新聞 >> 綜合新聞 >> 2019年水稻中后期主要病蟲發生趨勢及防治意見
               
               
              2019年水稻中后期主要病蟲發生趨勢及防治意見
              2019-07-30 11:56:51 來源:農藥快訊信息網 瀏覽:1106

              根據7月24~25日江蘇省秋熟作物病蟲害發生趨勢會商分析,預計水稻中后期“三病三蟲”(稻瘟病、稻曲病、紋枯病及稻縱卷葉螟、稻飛虱、螟蟲)總體將由中等至偏重發生,發生程度重于上年,不同地區、不同耕作與栽培方式病蟲發生不平衡性大。各地務必加強監測預警,科學制訂防治對策,大力推廣綠色防控技術,適時打好病蟲防治總體戰,確保有效控制危害。

               

              1  趨勢分析

              預計全省水稻中后期病蟲總體呈中等至偏重發生態勢。其中,穗稻瘟中等、局部偏重流行,稻曲病偏輕、局部中等發生,紋枯病偏重、局部大發生,細菌性病害在局部老病區中等發生,稻縱卷葉螟偏重發生,稻飛虱中等發生,二化螟中等、大螟偏輕發生。

               

              1.1  預報結果

              1)稻瘟病。穗稻瘟中等發生,丘陵、沿江、沿海及淮北局部感病品種上偏重流行,重于2018年(圖1);若破口抽穗期遇多陰雨天氣,發生程度將加重。

               

              2)稻曲病。全省偏輕,丘陵、淮北雜交稻及蘇南、沿江、沿海粗桿大穗型品種上中等流行,略重于2018年(圖2);若破口期遇多陰雨天氣,將加重發生程度。

               

              3)紋枯病。全省偏重,里下河、丘陵及淮北局部大發生,發生程度重于2018年(見圖3);大面積8月上旬進入發病盛期,較常年相近略早。

               

              4)細菌性病害。細菌性基腐病在沿江、沿海及里下河局部中等發生,白葉枯病在沿海、沿淮及淮北局部中等發生,輕于上年。

               

              5)稻縱卷葉螟。預計總體偏重發生,五(3)代、六(4)代在沿太湖、沿江地區大發生,重于2018年(圖4)。7月下旬至8月上旬自南向北陸續進入本地蟲源羽化峰,如果期間出現外來補充遷入,與本地蟲源疊加,將加重發生程度;8月上中旬進入五(3)代卵孵化及低齡幼蟲高峰;9月上旬出現六(4)代成蟲回遷峰,對遲熟嫩綠水稻影響較大。

               

              6)褐飛虱。預計總體中等發生,其中五(2)代偏輕發生,六(3)代中等發生,蘇南、沿江、沿海局部偏重至大發生,如果后期有補充遷入,將加重七(4)代在直播稻及遲熟品種上的發生程度,預計發生程度將重于上年(圖5)。

               

              7)白背飛虱。五(2)代中等發生,蘇南、沿江局部偏重發生,發生程度重于上年。

               

              8)二化螟。二代在沿江、丘陵及淮北中等發生,與2018年相近略輕(圖6)。發生期長且不整齊,卵孵主高峰南部在8月上旬,北部在8月上中旬,早于上年。

               

              9)大螟。三代偏輕,蘇南、沿江及沿海局部中等發生,較2018年略重。卵孵高峰在8月下旬到9月上旬,與常年相近(圖7)。

               

              1.2  預報依據

              1)稻瘟病、稻曲病。苗葉稻瘟總體偏輕,丘陵、沿江、沿海局部感病品種上偏重發生。6月10日響水秧田普查,病田率37.5%,平均病葉率1.6%;入梅后多降水涼爽天氣,利于葉稻瘟的擴展,6月下旬丘陵、沿海局部南粳9108、華粳系列、香糯1號、揚農稻1號等感病品種上出現發病中心,發生普遍;出梅后感病品種病情仍在擴展,如海安7月20日系統調查,病株率、病葉率分別為6.55%、3.37%,分別較5天前上升50%和62%。7月20~22日大面積普查,丘陵、沿江、沿海及淮北地區病株率0.1%~10%、病葉率0.01%~6%,重于上年;沿海、沿江南粳9108、揚農稻1號等重發田塊病株率35%~70%、病葉率15%~50%。秸稈連年全量還田,利于田間菌源積累,尤其葉稻瘟發生普遍的感病品種種植區,為穗稻瘟的發生提供了大量的菌源。上年稻曲病在沿淮、淮北雜交稻及丘陵、沿江粗桿大穗型品種上發生較重,田間菌源充足。

               

              2)紋枯病。上茬休耕地區6月下旬始見病株,較常年早10天左右;其他地區大多于7月上中旬始見,較常年相近略早。梅雨期間溫度偏低,不利于紋枯病快速蔓延,7月中下旬系統調查,里下河、丘陵及淮北病穴率5%~40%、病株率0.5%~5%;大田普查,早栽田重于遲栽田,移栽田重于直播田,里下河、丘陵及淮北病穴率2%~10%、病株率0.5%~1.5%。病情總體輕于去年同期。

               

              3)細菌性病害。沿、淮北、沿海局部地區雜交稻品種易感細菌性病害,上年受臺風及強降雨過程較多影響,這些地區白葉枯病等細菌性病害發生較重,田間菌源充足。

               

              4)稻縱卷葉螟。遷入早、遷入峰次多、遷入量偏高、田間危害早。吳江5月24日燈下始見成蟲,較上年提前21天。沿太湖地區普遍于6月17~22日、6月底~7月7日、7月9~13日田間趕蛾見2~3個小的四(2)代成蟲峰,峰日畝蛾量50~150頭,峰期列近年較早,蛾量與上年相近;7月15日以來,沿太湖、沿江普遍查見一個較大成蟲峰,峰日畝蛾量100~1,000頭,目前峰期仍在持續;四(2)代系統田累計畝蛾量,蘇南、沿江地區平均1,627頭,是去年的1.9倍,是2008年以來均值的62%,列2008年以來第6位,武進達7,920頭。白葉查見早,6月中旬即查見白葉,列2008年最早年份,蘇南、沿江早栽水稻白葉率0.1%~0.5%。7月20日前后,蘇南、沿江系統調查及大田普查,百穴蟲卵量15~60頭·粒,沿太湖高的達100~200頭·粒,重于上年;田間卷葉率普遍在0.5%以內,武進觀測圃達3%,發生總體列2008年以來同期第6位。

               

              5)褐飛虱。遷入期正常,沿太湖、沿江田間查見普遍率高。6月底7月上旬蘇南、沿江地區燈下零星見遷入,遷入期正常;7月上旬蘇南、沿江局部田間查見低齡若蟲,列近年較早。截止7月21日,全省20%地區燈下見蟲,張家港單燈累計誘蟲149頭,列近10年以來第2位。7月20日前后系統調查及大田普查,蘇南、沿江百穴蟲量大多1~5頭,重于去年,沿太湖、沿江局部較高,如金壇、宜興、通州等地百穴30~40頭,且田間查見普遍率高,列2005年以來同期第2~3位;目前田間以高齡若蟲為主,江淮北部及淮北大部未查見。

               

              6)白背飛虱。遷入期略早、遷入峰次多、燈下蟲量低、田間蟲量略高。蘇南、沿江局部地區在6月上旬以來出現2~3個遷入峰,峰期單燈累計遷入蟲量在50~80頭;至7月21日止,全省四(1)代平均單燈累計誘蟲32.4頭,是去年的26%,是2005年以來均值的3.2%,列2005年以來第15位。7月20日前后系統田調查及大田調查,田間以低齡若蟲為主,百穴蟲量大多50~150頭,卵量30~150粒;蘇南、沿江局部蟲量200~300頭,卵量500~1,500粒,普遍高于去年同期,列2005年來第8~10位。

               

              7)二化螟。一代誘集蟲量、殘蟲量及田間為害率普遍輕于上年。全省一代單燈平均累計誘蛾183頭,分別是去年及2005年以來均值的58%和54%;一代單個性誘劑平均累計誘蛾170頭,是去年的41%,如東115頭、海安357頭,均低于上年的515頭、664頭。全省44個典型地區平均一代螟害株率0.11%,部分上茬休耕及防治不及時秈稻田塊螟害株率0.5%~2.2%。44個典型地區剝查,一代平均畝殘留蟲量66頭,是上年的78%,其中沿江、丘陵及淮北畝殘留蟲量高的地區200~1,100頭,列2001年以來第15位前后。7月初以來平均單燈累計誘蛾24頭,是上年的89%,平均單個性誘劑累計誘蛾37頭,是上年的1.5倍。休耕田塊水稻播栽期早,利于有效蟲源的積累。

               

              8)大螟。前期誘集成蟲、殘蟲量及為害程度重于上年。全省一代單燈平均累計誘蛾252頭,是上年的1.8倍,為2005年以來均值的91%;一代單個性誘劑平均累計誘蟲257頭,是去年的1.2倍,蘇南、沿江高的地區達600~810頭。二代單燈平均累計誘蛾33頭,是上年的1.3倍;單個性誘劑平均累計誘蛾29頭,是上年的66%。7月下旬調查,二代螟害株率0.01%~0.1%;剝查32個典型地區加權平均畝殘留活蟲27頭,是上年的1.7倍,列2001年以來第6~8位;此外,田外玉米、茭白、蒲等寄主仍有一定的蟲源。

               

              1.3  品種布局與苗情

              一是感病品種種植面積大。隨著優質食味水稻種植面積進一步擴大,這部分水稻大多感稻瘟病和稻曲病,且我省主栽品種抗稻瘟病的比例不高,加之同一品種連續多年種植,導致品種抗性退化,利于稻瘟病、稻曲病的發生流行。二是在田水稻栽培方式多樣,生育期差異大,橋梁田多,利于遷飛性害蟲遷移和螟蟲輾轉為害。下階段水稻拔節孕穗后,田間郁閉度增大,田間小氣候將利于紋枯病的擴展蔓延和“兩遷”害蟲的發生危害。三是據栽培機構分析,今年上茬休耕田塊水稻生育期早,而淮北地區由于干旱生育期遲,不同區域,甚至同一地區生育期差異長達1個月以上,加上近年稻田綜合種養模式快速推廣,這部分苗情差異大,破口抽穗期遇陰雨天氣概率大,利于稻瘟病、稻曲病的流行,生育期遲的田塊也利于“兩遷”害蟲的滯留危害。

               

              1.4  氣候因素

              據省氣象臺預報,今年7月21日~8月20日降水量全省一致偏多,較常年偏多0~2成,全省范圍內有4次降水過程,利于“兩遷”害蟲的遷入及繁殖危害,也利于紋枯病及早播田塊稻瘟病與稻曲病等真菌性病害流行,8月全省大部氣溫較常年偏高0~1℃,利于紋枯病的擴展蔓延。預計盛夏期間(7~8月)將有2~3個臺風影響我省,可能有1個影響較重,利于白葉枯病等細菌性病害流行。

               

              2  防治意見

              針對今年水稻中后期重大病蟲發生態勢,各地要圍繞農業綠色發展要求,堅持“公共植保、綠色植保”兩個理念,強化監測預報和防治指導,科學打好中后期重大病蟲防治總體戰,有效控制病蟲危害損失,為水稻豐產豐收、提質增效打下堅實基礎。

               

              一要強化監測調查,提升測報準確率。針對今年蘇南、沿江地區上茬輪作休耕模式下病蟲發生的新特點及各地病蟲發生的不平衡性,各地要緊扣“面廣、量足、質高”要求,突出“三個結合”,即系統監測與大面積普查相結合、測報工具監測與人工田間調查相結合、查蟲與查卵相結合,增強調查的代表性和可靠性。要充分利用自動化、智能化病蟲監測設備,提升監測預警的智能化水平。要加強與栽培、氣象等方面專家的聯系,充分發揮水稻創新團隊及專家協作組作用,定期開展趨勢會商,不斷校正預報結果,及時向社會和基層發布,按要求做好信息公開。

               

              二要突出重點病蟲,打好防治總體戰。在做好生態調控和理化誘控措施的基礎上,對達標病蟲,明確主攻對象,統籌兼顧,科學打好防治總體戰。重點打好3次防治總體戰,第1次在8月上旬,沿太湖、沿江地區以“兩遷”害蟲、紋枯病為主,其他地區以紋枯病為主攻對象,兼顧螟蟲;第2次在8月中下旬,結合大面積水稻破口抽穗,主攻穗稻瘟、稻曲病、紋枯病及“兩遷”害蟲、螟蟲;第3次在9月上中旬水稻穗期,主攻穗稻瘟及“兩遷”害蟲。白葉枯病、細菌性基腐病等細菌性病害重發區需單獨開展針對性用藥。水稻生長后期,要根據褐飛虱發生情況,因地制宜打好收關戰,確保控制危害。

               

              三要強化分類指導,提高防控效果。針對今年水稻田間苗情復雜、病蟲情發生差異大的特點,要強化分類指導。要充分利用電視、廣播、報紙等傳統媒體以及12316、微信公眾號、手機APP等平臺,及時將重大病蟲發生防治信息送到千家萬戶;防治關鍵時期,及時組織各級專家和農技人員,廣泛深入病蟲重發區和技術力量薄弱區,掛鉤服務、分類指導,因病、因蟲、因苗、因天開展病蟲防控。要落實防護措施,避免中毒中暑事故的發生。要推廣高效低毒低殘留農藥,科學選擇、交替使用、減量控害,切實防止農作物藥害事故和農產品農藥殘留超標。糧桑混栽區要協調好農田用藥與養蠶之間的矛盾,注意保護家蠶安全。水稻最后一次用藥應嚴格執行農藥安全間隔期,防止農藥殘留超標。

               

              四要推進綠色防控,確保農藥使用量負增長。因地制宜推廣應用種植香根草、安裝害蟲性誘劑、人工釋放天敵赤眼蜂、使用生物藥劑等生物物理防控措施,減少化學農藥使用,提高綠色防控水平,促進綠色生產。要加強綠色防控示范區建設,推進綠色防控示范區建設與園藝作物標準園、綜合種養、“三品一標”生產基地、綠色食品原料基地等建設結合,通過綠色防控示范區、專業化統防統治示范區、水稻綠色防控創新團隊示范地基等平臺,展示綠色防控技術,輻射帶動大面積綠色防控水平提高。要集成應用“種苗處理+生態調控+科學用藥”的技術模式,因地制宜建立形成不同生態區、不同栽培方式、不同病蟲特點的綠色防控技術體系,確保85個省級綠色防控都有一套農民看得懂、學得會、用得上的綠色防控技術,提升綠色防控技術水平。

               

              1  稻瘟病發生趨勢

               

              2  稻曲病發生趨勢

               

              3  紋枯病發生趨勢

               

              4  稻縱卷葉螟發生趨勢

               

              5  褐飛虱發生趨勢

               

              6  二化螟發生趨勢

               

              7  大螟發生趨勢


              來源:江蘇植保

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