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              農藥行業淡季將提前到來
              2015-08-03 08:42:51 來源:不詳 瀏覽:45464

                據國家統計局統計,1~6月,農藥原藥產量為180.6萬噸,同比小幅增長3.3%。1~5月農藥行業完成主營業務收入1251.3億元,同比增長8.7%;實現利潤總額86.2億元,同比增長2.7%。在成本上升、價格下跌的形勢下,上半年農藥行業提前步入淡季。專家指出,目前市場仍未顯示出好轉跡象,行業已進入新的調整期,預計下半年將在調整中繼續緩慢增長。

                上半年農藥行業一個明顯的特征就是成本增加。隨著各地安全、環保壓力不斷增大,上游企業生產成本增加,直接導致農藥原材料成本不斷增長。新《環保法》實施以來,農藥行業紛紛加大了環保投資和“三廢”治理力度,環保成本占比大幅提升。運輸成本也在加大,由于大多數農藥原材料及中間體被列入危險化學品管理范疇,運輸成本直線上升,運價普遍上漲20%以上,個別品種運價漲幅高達50%。另外,用工成本增加在全國各地表現也較為普遍,特別是制劑加工業旺季僅半年左右,勞動力成本增長表現得非常突出。以湖南為例,農藥行業用工成本增長20%以上,個別地區制劑加工用工成本更是上漲了30%左右。

                在綜合成本上升的同時,農藥產品的價格卻是一路下行。受國際國內兩個市場需求不旺、高毒農藥禁限用、農藥減量控害行動等多重因素影響,農藥行業整體上呈現價格低位運行的態勢,不少品種甚至創下近3年新低。據中國農藥工業協會統計,今年上半年農藥價格指數整體保持在81~85之間,較去年同期下跌十分明顯最大跌幅達20.05%。6月份農藥價格指數跌至今年上半年最低值81.39環比下跌1.22%同比下跌達18.20%。

                分品種來看,除草劑成為價格下跌的重災區,以第一大噸位的草甘膦原藥為例,上半年其平均加權成交價格為1.96萬元(噸價,下同),較2014年上半年均值3.08萬元下跌36.36%。據中國農藥工業協會統計上半年草甘膦價格指數保持在58~62之間,始終處于低位運行。目前,草甘膦原藥價格已經跌破1.9萬元,如果放任價格自由發展,后期可能很快跌破1.8萬元的歷史最低水平,市場或將再現“草甘膦災”。

                但殺菌劑上半年卻表現良好,最為抗跌。其價格指數整體平穩,始終保持在96~100.5之間,其中3~4月份有所下跌但隨后及出現上揚態勢。6月份殺菌劑價格達100.04環比上漲1.61%,但同比仍下跌1.25%。

                受原材料成本上漲和價格跳水等因素影響,農藥行業利潤空間受到很大擠壓,已經進入微利期、保本期,個別產品甚至出現虧本,直接影響了農藥行業的整體利潤,以草甘膦為主業的上市公司均預報上半年業績預虧。

                受此影響,今年的農藥行業提前進入淡季,不少廠家紛紛提早停工檢修,從統計數據來看,5~6月份全國停工企業數較前4個月明顯增多,是近幾年來少有的現象。

                進入下半年,農藥市場不僅沒有發出止跌信號,反而有進一步下跌的趨勢。目前,國內外百草枯母藥的市場需求進一步下降,導致其市場價格步步走低。相對于去年同期,百草枯母藥價格下降了近1.1萬元。

                整體來看,農藥行業已經進入新的調整期,這對行業來說既是挑戰,也是機遇。中國農藥工業協會會長孫叔寶指出,農藥行業必須面對困難,敢于和勇于創新。降本增效、拓展國內外市場,是農藥行業渡過難關必做的功課。

                孫叔寶認為,農藥行業要抓住機遇調整產業結構、組織機構和產品結構,依靠科技進步和技術創新,全面提高農藥制造業自動化、智能化水平,大力發展綠色農藥。而在營銷方面,則要圍繞專業合作社、家庭農場、種植大戶等新型農業經營主體,通過電商服務、作物解決方案服務與農藥終端用戶零距離對接,通過互聯網技術與傳統銷售渠道齊頭并進、線上線下聯動,實現產需對接、物技結合,不斷拓展國內市場。在出口方面,則應該以全球化思維開拓海外市場,以物聯網大數據助推我國農藥產業轉型發展,以高品質產品和農化服務打造農藥強勢品牌,提高國際市場占有率,提升國際市場話語權。

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